The Effect of COVID-19 on the Level of Economic Growth in South Asian Countries

Abstract

The research was conducted to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic growth of South Asian economies. The research focused on four major south Asian economies, including Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. The COVID-19 is a pandemic for all economies, and it has impacted global growth, financial, and economic conditions. Economic activity has been slow during the COVID-19 period, which has resulted in increased unemployment and inflation. These macroeconomic factors affect the position of investors and reduce the investments in financial markets; as a result, stock market performance and trading have decreased. The research conducted is based on secondary data analysis of 2020 and 2021 monthly data indices taken from COVID-19 and macroeconomic variables for Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. E-views 9.4 was used to analyse the data. Software and research analysis are performed based on the unit root test, regression analysis, and co-integration analysis to evaluate the comparative analysis between economies. The time series data analysis performed for each economy using unit root test analysis reveals that the data is not stationary at the level, so the researcher used the first difference in economic growth of each country to convert the data into stationary data. The regression analysis is separately performed on all economies, and this is evaluated. The COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the economic growth of each economy, including Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, and economic growth has decreased over time as a result of the COVID-19. The co-integration analysis used to assess the long-term relationship discovered a long-term relationship between the COVID-19 index and economic growth in various economies.